Thousands of protesters led by opposition leaders and civic activists gathered outside the Parliament building on November 8, 2020 to declare mistrust to the October 31 parliamentary elections and demand snap elections.
Number of citizens attending the rally has triggered controversy. Commenting on the rally, members of the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed that quite few people gathered outside the Parliament and that the opposition failed to mobilize citizens. MP Irakli Kobakhidze, the ruling party’s executive secretary and head of its campaign headquarters, said that about 7,000 people came to the rally, while another Georgian Dream lawmaker, Giorgi Kakhiani noted that only 6,000 people participated in protests.
The same narrative was promoted by pro-government, anti-opposition Facebook pages and antiliberal groups.
Using the MapChecking tool, Myth Detector has estimated an approximate number of people participating in the November 8 rally. Based on drone footages and crowd density estimation, the number of protesters has been estimated at about 21,546.
How do pro-government actors and antiliberal groups assess the November 8 rally?
Pro-government and anti-opposition Facebook pages ლიდერი 41 (Leader 41), სექტა (Sect) and მიხეილ უკრაინოლოგი (Mikheil Ukrainologi) published the same photos about the number of protesters participating in the November 8 rally.
The photo does not completely show the area, where the protesters had gathered. Moreover, it is impossible to determine the time the picture was taken.
Mikheil Ukrainologi dedicated one more post to the small number of protesters.
Two Georgian Dream lawmakers, Irakli Kobakhidze and Giorgi Kakhiani also commented on the number of citizens who participated in the November 8 rally.
Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgian Dream’s executive secretary, said on November 8 that the opposition planned to mobilize 12,000 people, but far fewer people attended. He also noted that only 7,000 people came to the rally. Deputy Chairman of the Parliament, Giorgi Kakhiani also named a similar figure, saying that 6,000 people participated in the rally.
Besides the ruling party members, Nikoloz Mzhavanadze, head of the Union of Human Rights Defenders, also commented on the number of protesters, writing on his Facebook page that “4,000 UNM members worth GEL 200” participated in the rally. Mzhavanadze uploaded a photo taken in the evening when the rally was almost over.
The Georgian Idea party also published a post on Facebook in response to Giorgi Kakhiani’s remarks, reprimanding Georgian Dream for “giving” one million votes to the United National Movement (UNM), while the latter failed to mobilize even 10,000 people to the rally.
Approximately how many people came to the November 8 rally?
Myth detector used the MapChecking tool to estimate an approximate number of people participating in the November 8 rally. MapChecking enables us to search for a specific place with geolocation, select the area where the people were standing and estimate their density. Based on this information, the tool can estimate an approximate number of people.
The November 8 rally was announced to start at 3pm. The drone footages aired on Channel One at 15:29 show that people occupied the area outside the Parliament, as well as part of Zakaria Chichinadze Street and the area outside the First Classical Gymnasium, where the density was relatively light.
Mtavari Arkhi TV aired its drone footage only at 16:45, showing larger territory occupied by protesters. In particular, part of April 9 Street, as well as the area outside the National Youth Palace is shown in the footage.
Based on the footages aired by Mtavari Arkhi TV and Channel One, we selected the area occupied by the crowd on the map.
Since the density of protesters differs by areas, to achieve higher accuracy, we decided to divide the area occupied by them in two parts – the area outside the First Classical Gymnasium and the rest of the territory – Rustaveli Avenue outside the Parliament, parts of April 9 and Chichinadze streets and the area outside the National Youth Palace. We estimated an approximate number of protesters separately and then summed up the results. We used static crowd density visuals provided on MapChecking website to estimate the density.
So, we estimated the density of the crowd on the area outside the First Classical Gymnasium at 1.5 people per square meter. According to MapChecking, approximately 5,337 people gathered on that territory.
Crowds were packed to a higher density on the territory outside the Parliament, at Zakaria Chichinadze and April 9 streets and on the territory outside the National Youth Palace. Therefore, we estimated crowd density at 2 people per square meter, totaling 16, 209 people.
After summing up the results of estimations from both areas, number of protesters totaled 21,546 people.
It is worth noting that the resulting number should not be taken as a precise figure. Moreover, MapChecking tool does not provide any margins of error. However, we calculated an approximate number of crowds participating in the November 8 rally with the help of drone footages and crowd density estimation.
Irakli Kobakhidze claims that 7,000 protesters participated in the rally, while Giorgi Kakhiani says that the opposition managed to mobilize only 6,000 supporters. The figures named by them would have been real, if the density had been 0.5 or 0.6 people per square meter. This density is absolutely irrelevant in respect of the November 8 rally.
