On July 17, 2019, Georgia and World released an article headlined “In 2050, Germany will be a Muslim country and after seven years, every fifth resident of France will be Muslim.” The article focuses on the projections of Muslim population growth in European countries, citing migration and growth of Muslim fertility rates as the reasons. The article provides incorrect statistical data regarding four European countries on current number of Muslims and their fertility rates, as well as on projections. These countries are France, Belgium, Germany and Netherlands.
Although the author claims that the data provided by him were collected 7-8 years ago, he does not refer to any source, research or document used when writing the article; moreover, the title of the article makes one suppose that the material reflects the current situation.
Lie No. 1: In France, one Muslim woman gives birth to eight children, on average
Real fact: In France, one Muslim woman gives birth to 2.9 children, on average
According to the article, fertility rate of Muslims living in France is 8.1, on average. In fact, based on the total fertility rates of Pew Research Center for 2015-2020, fertility rate of non-Muslim population of France is 1.9, while one Muslim woman gives birth to 2.9 rather than to 8.1 children, on average.
Lie No. 2: In Belgium, 25% of population and 50% of newborns are Muslims.
Real fact: Out of 11.31 million population of Belgium, only 7.6% are Muslims with 2.6 fertility rate.
The latest data on Muslim population fertility rates are provided in the 2016 report of Pew Research Center. Muslims account for only 7.6% of the population of Belgium. According to the same report, one Muslim woman gives birth to only 2.6 children. As for non-Muslim population, this figure equals to 1.7 (less by 0.9).
Just for comparison, total population of Belgium was 11.31 million in 2016 with Muslims accounting for about 0.8 million. According to the article released by Georgia and World, number of Muslim and non-Muslin newborns is equal, which is not true. Given the number of Muslims in Belgium and their fertility rates, it is apparent that 0.8 million Muslims with 2.6 fertility rate cannot be equal to 10.5 million non-Muslims with 1.7 fertility rate.
Lie No 3. In 2050, Germany will be a Muslim country.
Real fact: According to Pew Research Center’s projections, in 2050 the share of Muslims in Germany will increase to 10.8% on avarage in the zero, medium and high migration scenarios.
According to the report of Pew Research Center, future refugee flow is one of the determinants of religious composition of the population in Germany. According to the existing forecasts, in 2050 the share of Muslims in Germany will be 10.8% on averagein the zero, medium and high migration scenarios. 19.7% is the highest figure in the high migration scenario. In the zero migration scenario, the share of Muslims in Germany will make up 8.7% by 2050, according to Pew Research Center.
Lie No.4: In 2027, every fifth French resident and after 15 years one half of the population of Netherlands will be Muslim.
Real fact: By 2030, percentage of Muslim population in France will be 10.3%, and in Netherlands – 7.8%.
Geworld.ge’s article claims that by 2027, every fifth resident of France will be Muslim; moreover, Muslims will account for one half of the population of Netherlands.
According to the report of Pew Research Center (The Future of the Global Muslim Population), in 2010, the share of Muslims in the total population of France was 7.5% and in Netherlands – 5.5%. According to the statistical data for 2016, these figures increased to 8.8% and 7.1%, respectively. The report notes that according to recent tendencies in Europe, including in France and Netherlands, by 2030, percentage of Muslim population in France will be 10.3% and in Netherlands – 7.8%.
Thus, Muslims will comprise not one half of Dutch population, but rather its one-twelfth; as for France, every tenth resident will be Muslim, meaning that Georgia and World has doubled the figures, without referring to the source.
Prepared by Giorgi Karalashvili
Myth Detector Lab